Mastering EV (Expected Value): The Secret to Winning

If you could bet $10 on a coin flip where Heads pays you $20 and Tails pays you $0, would you do it? Of course. You break even. But what if Heads paid $30?

This is Expected Value (EV). You might lose the flip, but the decision was profitable.

The Golden Formula

Every decision in poker—bet, check, call, fold—has an EV. Your goal is simply to choose the action with the highest EV.

EV = (%Win * $Win) - (%Lose * $Lose)

A Real Example

Imagine the pot is $100. Your opponent goes All-In for another $50. You possess a Flush Draw (approx 20% equity on the turn). Should you call?

• Cost to Call: $50
• Total Pot if you win: $100 (pot) + $50 (villain) + $50 (you) = $200 total, but $150 profit relative to now.
• Win Rate: 20%
• Lose Rate: 80%

Let's run the math:

EV = (0.20 * $150) - (0.80 * $50) = $30 - $40 = -$10

Result: Calling is -EV. You lose $10 on average every time you make this call. Fold!

Results Oriented Thinking

The most dangerous trap in poker is judging your skill by your immediate results. You can go All-In with Aces, get called by 7-2, and lose. Does that mean you played bad? No. You made a +EV decision.

Over 1 hand, luck dominates. Over 100,000 hands, math dominates. Use our EV Calculator to check your lines.